Idea Kill Score

A way to count how an idea can die before you spend money on it.

Disclosure: this page is published by the team behind BizChecker, an AI idea validator. Section 4 describes our own product. The method in sections 2 and 3 works without it.

1. What does an idea kill score measure?

Most idea checks ask how good the idea looks. A kill score asks the opposite question: which specific things end this business, and what is the chance of each? The answer is a ranked list, not one verdict.

The reason to invert the question is practical. Optimism is cheap and every founder has plenty of it. A failure mode with a number attached is harder to ignore, because someone has to argue with the number.

2. How do you build one in four steps?

1. List the failure modes. Write every way the idea can die: nobody pays, one platform changes its rules, acquiring a customer costs more than the customer returns, a regulator steps in, a bigger player copies you. Stop when the next item is a variation of one already on the list.
2. Estimate the probability of each. A percentage for each. These are judgments, and you should say so out loud. Two people will give different numbers, and that disagreement is useful information.
3. Estimate the impact of each. Use three levels: low (a setback), medium (a pivot), high (months of lost work or a dead business).
4. Mark the kill triggers. A kill trigger is a failure mode that ends the idea by itself, whatever else goes right. Dependence on one platform's policy is the classic one.

3. What does a worked example look like?

The numbers below are invented for illustration. They describe a hypothetical email tool for recruiters and are not data from a real company.

Read the table from the top. Two modes are both probable and fatal, so the idea does not survive in its current form. The useful move is to redesign around those two rows: narrow the niche so price is not the contest, and diversify away from the single delivery channel. Then rescore.

Notice what the table does not give you: one magic number. Averaging the probabilities would hide the two rows that matter.

4. Where does BizChecker fit?

A BizChecker report contains a risk matrix in which each risk carries a probability, an impact level, a mitigation and a kill-trigger flag. The report also contains a competitor map, a financial model and an explicit GO/NO-GO verdict.

Five expert perspectives work on the idea independently. A separate synthesis pass then combines them into the report.

BizChecker does not output a single 0 to 100 number. The score is the risk matrix itself, which is the same structure as the table above.

Figures come from the BizChecker product configuration. Check bizchecker.ai for the current numbers before you buy.

5. What can a kill score not do?

It cannot predict execution. Two teams with the same table will land in different places, because one of them is better at the work. It also cannot replace talking to customers: a probability you invented at a desk is still an invention.

The honest use is narrower. A kill score tells you where to look first, and which assumption to test before you build anything.

Frequently asked questions

Is there an official Idea Kill Score?

No. The term has no standard definition or governing body. This page treats it as a risk-weighted ranking of failure modes, which you can build by hand.

Does BizChecker give a number from 0 to 100?

No. A BizChecker report gives a risk matrix with probability, impact, mitigation and a kill-trigger flag for each risk, plus a GO/NO-GO verdict.

How many failure modes should I list?

As many as you can name and tell apart. Stop when a new item only repeats one already listed.

Can I build an idea kill score without a tool?

Yes. A spreadsheet with four columns is enough: failure mode, probability, impact and kill trigger.